A Simple Empirical Measure of Central Banks' Conservatism
By Grégory Levieuge, and Yannick Lucotte
SSRN (2012) Abstract Paper
Coder:

Gregory  Levieuge

University of Orleans

France

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This code allows to replicate the results obtained for the United States in the corresponding paper. More precisely, it replicates the U.S. optimal monetary policy rule for 3 alternative values of λ - the preference parameter devoted to the inflation variability in equation (1): Lambda_KM, Lambda_CONS, and Lambda_CONSW. Running the code, the user will find the optimal reaction coefficients βy* and βπ* as in table 4. Moreover, the program replicates the graphs of the last plot of the figure 9, and delivers the composition of the matrices A1, A2 and B following the very first step of the program (GMM estimations), before the estimated βy and βπ in A1 are replaced by their respective optimized values. Click below for more information.
Created April 01, 2012
Last update July 23, 2012
Software Rats 8.10
Abstract
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In this paper we suggest a simple empirical and model-independent measure of Central Banks' Conservatism, based on the Taylor curve. This new indicator can easily be extended in time and space, whatever the underlying monetary regime of the considered countries. We demonstrate that it evolves in accordance with the monetary experiences of 32 OECD member countries from 1980, and is largely equivalent to the model-based measure provided by Krause & Méndez [Southern Economic Journal, 2005]. We finally bring forward the interest of such an indicator for further empirical analysis dealing with the preferences of Central Banks.
Levieuge, G., and Y. Lucotte, "A Simple Empirical Measure of Central Banks' Conservatism", SSRN.
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Lambda_KM
Lambda_KM
Lambda_CONS
Lambda_CONS
Lambda_CONSW
Lambda_CONSW
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Please cite the publication as :

Levieuge, G., and Y. Lucotte, "A Simple Empirical Measure of Central Banks' Conservatism", SSRN.

Please cite the companion website as :

Levieuge, G., and Y. Lucotte, "A Simple Empirical Measure of Central Banks' Conservatism", RunMyCode companion website, http://www.runmycode.org/CompanionSite/Site92

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Inputs and Inputs description

Variable/Parameters Description, constraint Comments
Lambda_KM
    Lambda_KM corresponds to the 5-year mean value of the indicator provided by Krause & Méndez (2005). Its value is 0.860 (see table 4)
    Lambda_CONS
      Lambda_CONS corresponds to the CONS index built in this paper. Its value is 0.782 (see table 4).
      Lambda_CONSW
        Lambda_CONSW corresponds to the CONS index weighted by the supply and demand shocks (see Section 5 for its formula). Its value is 0.785 (see the last column of the table 6).

        Inputs and inputs description

        Variable/Parameters Description Visualisation
        Lambda_KM
        Lambda_CONS
        Lambda_CONSW

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        A Simple Empirical Measure of Central Banks' Conservatism
        G. Levieuge (2012)

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        Bank credit to the private sector fell as a share to GDP during the last decade, in spite of a successful bank recapitalization in the middle of the 2000s and high and stable growth before the recent macroeconomic turmoil. This paper explains this trend based on both bank supply factors and demand for credit from the private sector. First the paper describes the evolution of the banks’ sources and uses of funds in the period 2005-2011, characterized by two different cycles of external capital flows. Then it estimates supply and demand equations of credit to the private sector, using quarterly data for the period 1999-2011. First, the system of simultaneous equations is estimated assuming continuous market clearing. Then the system is estimated allowing for transitory disequilibrium. In general, the main results are robust to the market clearing assumption. Our main findings show that, while real industrial production and the stock market have a significant impact on credit demand, deposits and claims on government affected the supply of credit in Egypt. Finally, both models yield similar results for the most recent period of private credit contraction: the single most important factor explaining the largest share of the decline is the expansion of banking credit to the public sector. The slowdown in economic activity and the contraction of bank deposits explain the remainder of the predicted contraction in bank credit to the private sector.
        Herrera, S., C. Hurlin, and C. Zaki, "Why don’t Banks Lend to the Private Sector in Egypt? ", World Bank Working Paper Series.
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