Currency Crises Early Warning Systems: Why They Should Be Dynamic

By Hurlin Christophe, Dumitrescu Elena-Ivona, and Candelon Bertrand
Working Paper Maastricht University (2013)

  • Christophe Hurlin

    University of Orléans

    France

  • Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu

    University Paris Ouest

    France

  • Bertrand Candelon

    Maastricht University

    Netherlands

Created

September 28, 2013

Last update

October 1, 2013

Software

Matlab

Ranking

91

Visits

2875

Downloads

393

Description

This code estimates both static and dynamic Logit and Probit (binary-choice) models. Three types of dynamic models can be considered by including the lagged binary variable (Dynamic_y), the lagged index (Dynamic_π) or both of them (Dynamic_y ; Dy_π) as explanatory variables. A (T,1) binary vector must be specified, as well as a (T,N) matrix of explanatory variables. The user can also choose the lag length, the type of model and select between Logit and Probit specifications. The results include estimated parameters, standard-errors, t-statistics as well as information criteria. The series of estimated probabilities is saved in .csv format.

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